Egan-Jones Warns Cheap Drones and Missiles Pose Growing Threat to Middle East Energy Chokepoints

## Egan-Jones Flags Escalating Risk at Middle East Maritime Chokepoints Credit rating and research firm Egan-Jones has published a detailed analysis warning that relatively inexpensive missiles and drones have fundamentally altered the threat landscape surrounding the Middle East's most strategically vital maritime chokepoints — with far-reaching implications for global energy supply chains and sovereign credit ratings. According to the New York-based firm, Shiite militant groups have increasingly leveraged low-cost unmanned aerial and surface systems to exert pressure on the waterways that carry a substantial share of the world's petroleum exports. The analysis underscores a troubling asymmetry: while the infrastructure at risk — including supertankers, offshore terminals, and the chokepoints themselves — represents hundreds of billions of dollars in economic value, the weapons capable of disrupting it can be acquired and deployed at a fraction of that cost. The chokepoints in question include the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 20 percent of global oil trade transits daily, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea — a corridor that has already experienced significant disruption in recent years following Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. ### Credit and Trade Implications Egan-Jones framed the issue not only as a security concern but as a material risk factor for global trade flows and the creditworthiness of energy-dependent economies. Prolonged disruption to these routes could trigger insurance premium spikes, force costly voyage diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, and contribute to energy price volatility that ripples through sovereign and corporate credit profiles worldwide. The analysis reflects a growing consensus among maritime risk professionals that the era of relatively secure commercial passage through the Persian Gulf and Red Sea corridors may be giving way to a more contested operating environment — one in which non-state actors armed with commercially available technology can impose significant costs on international shipping. ### Industry Context The Egan-Jones report arrives as the maritime industry continues to grapple with the operational and financial fallout from Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that began in late 2023. Major container lines and tanker operators have maintained diversionary routing strategies, adding transit time and fuel costs that have kept freight rates elevated on key trade lanes. For maritime operators, insurers, and energy traders, the Egan-Jones analysis serves as a timely reminder that geopolitical risk at sea is no longer confined to state-on-state conflict — and that the calculus of protecting critical energy infrastructure must now account for the proliferation of asymmetric, low-cost weapons systems in volatile regions.