Intermodal Rates Lag Trucking Spot Market, But Change is Coming

The freight market has been sending mixed signals for months, but one trend stands out clearly as we move deeper into 2026: trucking spot rates have staged a meaningful recovery, while intermodal rates remain stubbornly anchored near cycle lows. According to data from FreightWaves, truckload spot rates (inclusive of fuel surcharges) have risen by over 20% since the start of the year, while intermodal spot rates have barely budged. This divergence reflects the ongoing capacity crunch in the trucking sector, as well as the relative abundance of intermodal equipment and infrastructure. 'Intermodal spot rates haven't kept pace with truckings's spot market surge — but that's about to change in 2026,' the FreightWaves report states. 'The intermodal market is poised for a major shift in the coming years as new capacity comes online and shippers increasingly turn to intermodal to combat the driver shortage and high trucking rates.' The report notes that several major infrastructure projects, including new rail terminals and equipment upgrades, are in the works that will boost intermodal capacity and competitiveness versus trucking. As these projects come to fruition over the next 3-4 years, intermodal rates are expected to rise in tandem with the trucking market. 'Shippers are going to have a hard time finding capacity and affordable rates in the truckload market, so many will be forced to shift more freight to intermodal,' the report states. 'That shift in demand, combined with the new intermodal capacity coming online, is what will drive intermodal spot rates higher in the latter half of the decade.' For maritime industry stakeholders, this forecast signals an important shift in the freight transportation landscape. As shippers increasingly turn to intermodal to meet their capacity needs, ports, rail operators, and other intermodal providers will need to ensure they have the infrastructure and equipment in place to handle rising volumes. Proactive investment and planning will be critical to capitalize on this expected market transition. Source: [Freight Waves](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/intermodal-spot-rates-havent-kept-pace-with-truckings-spot-market-surge-but-thats-about-to-change-in-2026)