Maersk Warns of Prolonged Hormuz Strait Closure Driving Global Shipping Upheaval

## Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Shipping Networks A.P. Moller–Maersk has characterized the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis as a fundamental threat to global shipping operations, warning that the critical energy chokepoint is likely to remain closed to commercial traffic for a prolonged period. The carrier's assessment signals that the regional disruption—stemming from ongoing conflicts and port strikes—will drive shipping cost volatility well into the second quarter of 2026. ## Cascading Cost Impacts The closure has triggered immediate market disruptions that extend far beyond the Middle East. Refinery outages and export restrictions have severely constrained global fuel supplies, forcing Maersk to introduce an Emergency Bunker Surcharge effective March 25. Vessels unable to refuel in the Gulf region must divert to alternative ports, where they face elevated 'war-zone' premiums that significantly increase operating costs. Simultaneously, Maersk has implemented a Strait of Hormuz Emergency Freight surcharge for Gulf-bound cargo. This charge reflects the true operational burden: rerouting expenses, temporary storage costs, and the need for additional vessel deployment to maintain service commitments. The surcharge structure underscores the carrier's assessment that the disruption will persist beyond the near term. ## Operational Constraints and Customer Options Maersk has suspended new bookings across much of the Upper Gulf region, including the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and eastern Saudi Arabia, with limited exceptions restricted to essential goods such as food and medicine. This operational pullback reflects the carrier's judgment that the closure makes new commitments to these markets untenable under current conditions. Customers face three options for existing shipments destined for the Gulf: accepting storage at intermediate ports, returning cargo to origin, or redirecting shipments to alternative destinations. While operationally practical, these alternatives impose substantial costs and scheduling delays that reverberate across global supply chains. ## Contingency Strategies and Market Outlook To maintain connectivity despite the closure, Maersk is expanding landbridge solutions—utilizing overland routes and transshipment points—while increasing air freight capacity. However, aviation markets themselves face cost pressures from fuel constraints, limiting the cost-effectiveness of this contingency. According to Maersk's latest guidance, the operating environment will remain constrained well into Q2 2026, with volatility expected to persist before stabilizing. The company's assessment suggests that shippers should prepare for sustained premium rates and capacity constraints in routes dependent on Hormuz transit, fundamentally altering shipping economics and supply chain planning horizons.